ffmpeg -v 0 -i %s -f ogg -vn -acodec libvorbis -ar 44100 -aq 3 -ac 1 -map_meta_data 0:0 -
Never a problem

adjust the number after -aq to adjust quality, higher = better. Wikipedia has a reasonable approximation chart that converts settings to bitrate.
EDIT: ffmpeg -v 0 -i %s -f ogg -vn -acodec libvorbis -ar 44100 -aq 3 -ac 2 -map_meta_data 0:0 -
"-ac 2" enables 2 channels, sorry for the original.
Just looked at logs during playback and this is working fine for me. One thing that needs to be understood is that ogg doesn't just spit back a lower bitrate but varies bitrate based on the data being sampled. You can find 2 different tracks, both at 320kbps in the original format, but if one is full orchestra and the other is a solo acapella, the orchestration will use noticibly more bit rate.
Playing random tracks at the same settings -aq 3 I see anything from 80 - 120 kbps in the logs. Wikipedia has good explanations of how this works.
[9/20/13 4:43:01 PM EDT] DEBUG InputStreamReaderThread (c:\subsonic\transcode\ffmpeg) Input #0, mp3, from '\\MAPLEGROVE-DC\Music\Music\Florence + the Machine\Lungs\Florence + the Machine - Lungs - 13 - Youve Got The Love.mp3':
[9/20/13 4:43:01 PM EDT] DEBUG InputStreamReaderThread (c:\subsonic\transcode\ffmpeg) Metadata:
[9/20/13 4:43:01 PM EDT] DEBUG InputStreamReaderThread (c:\subsonic\transcode\ffmpeg) TPE1 : Florence + the Machine
[9/20/13 4:43:01 PM EDT] DEBUG InputStreamReaderThread (c:\subsonic\transcode\ffmpeg) TALB : Lungs
[9/20/13 4:43:01 PM EDT] DEBUG InputStreamReaderThread (c:\subsonic\transcode\ffmpeg) TPE2 : Florence + the Machine
[9/20/13 4:43:01 PM EDT] DEBUG InputStreamReaderThread (c:\subsonic\transcode\ffmpeg) TIT2 : Youve Got The Love
[9/20/13 4:43:01 PM EDT] DEBUG InputStreamReaderThread (c:\subsonic\transcode\ffmpeg) TPUB : Universal Republic
[9/20/13 4:43:01 PM EDT] DEBUG InputStreamReaderThread (c:\subsonic\transcode\ffmpeg) TRCK : 13
[9/20/13 4:43:01 PM EDT] DEBUG InputStreamReaderThread (c:\subsonic\transcode\ffmpeg) TYER : 2009
[9/20/13 4:43:01 PM EDT] DEBUG InputStreamReaderThread (c:\subsonic\transcode\ffmpeg) TDRC : 2009
[9/20/13 4:43:01 PM EDT] DEBUG InputStreamReaderThread (c:\subsonic\transcode\ffmpeg) Duration: 00:02:48.04, start: 0.000000, bitrate: 138 kb/s
[9/20/13 4:43:01 PM EDT] DEBUG InputStreamReaderThread (c:\subsonic\transcode\ffmpeg) Stream #0.0: Audio: mp3, 44100 Hz, 2 channels, s16, 32 kb/s
[9/20/13 4:43:01 PM EDT] DEBUG InputStreamReaderThread (c:\subsonic\transcode\ffmpeg) Output #0, ogg, to 'pipe:':
[9/20/13 4:43:01 PM EDT] DEBUG InputStreamReaderThread (c:\subsonic\transcode\ffmpeg) Metadata:
[9/20/13 4:43:01 PM EDT] DEBUG InputStreamReaderThread (c:\subsonic\transcode\ffmpeg) artist : Florence + the Machine
[9/20/13 4:43:01 PM EDT] DEBUG InputStreamReaderThread (c:\subsonic\transcode\ffmpeg) album : Lungs
[9/20/13 4:43:01 PM EDT] DEBUG InputStreamReaderThread (c:\subsonic\transcode\ffmpeg) TPE2 : Florence + the Machine
[9/20/13 4:43:01 PM EDT] DEBUG InputStreamReaderThread (c:\subsonic\transcode\ffmpeg) title : Youve Got The Love
[9/20/13 4:43:01 PM EDT] DEBUG InputStreamReaderThread (c:\subsonic\transcode\ffmpeg) publisher : Universal Republic
[9/20/13 4:43:01 PM EDT] DEBUG InputStreamReaderThread (c:\subsonic\transcode\ffmpeg) track : 13
[9/20/13 4:43:01 PM EDT] DEBUG InputStreamReaderThread (c:\subsonic\transcode\ffmpeg) TYER : 2009
[9/20/13 4:43:01 PM EDT] DEBUG InputStreamReaderThread (c:\subsonic\transcode\ffmpeg) TDRC : 2009
[9/20/13 4:43:01 PM EDT] DEBUG InputStreamReaderThread (c:\subsonic\transcode\ffmpeg) Stream #0.0: Audio: vorbis, 44100 Hz, 2 channels, s16, 64 kb/s
[9/20/13 4:43:01 PM EDT] DEBUG InputStreamReaderThread (c:\subsonic\transcode\ffmpeg) Stream mapping:
[9/20/13 4:43:01 PM EDT] DEBUG InputStreamReaderThread (c:\subsonic\transcode\ffmpeg) Stream #0.0 -> #0.0
[9/20/13 4:43:01 PM EDT] DEBUG InputStreamReaderThread (c:\subsonic\transcode\ffmpeg) Press [q] to stop encoding
[9/20/13 4:43:01 PM EDT] DEBUG InputStreamReaderThread (c:\subsonic\transcode\ffmpeg) [mp3 @ 003e9200]Header missing
[9/20/13 4:43:01 PM EDT] DEBUG InputStreamReaderThread (c:\subsonic\transcode\ffmpeg) Error while decoding stream #0.0
[9/20/13 4:43:01 PM EDT] DEBUG InputStreamReaderThread (c:\subsonic\transcode\ffmpeg) size= 2454kB time=168.03 bitrate= 119.6kbits/s
[9/20/13 4:43:01 PM EDT] DEBUG InputStreamReaderThread (c:\subsonic\transcode\ffmpeg)
[9/20/13 4:43:01 PM EDT] DEBUG InputStreamReaderThread (c:\subsonic\transcode\ffmpeg) video:0kB audio:2108kB global headers:4kB muxing overhead 16.197202%
The complete log is saved in c:\subsonic\subsonic.log.